June 1st – Poland v Denmark

Gamebookers are offering a £20 sign up bonus at Quidco, plus they’re offering to SR match €20.  Now moving into different currencies might be a bit of a silly thing to do at this early stage but due to the Quidco amount I’ve not really got anything to lose.

It cost me £16.26 to get €20 so I’m using that ratio through all my conversions.  This isn’t the same as the market rate but it means my value of the euro stays consistent and I’m not losing a small percentage in 10 different places.  Bet odds on the draw are 2.35 and they are actually lower at Betfair 2.29 - my first arb giving me a loss of 4p!

This is where I make mistake #1.  When I was laying against the bet I put £16.26 into the stake amount and not £17.05 as the spreadsheet told me to.  I guess with all the extra figures used in the conversion I lost track of what I was doing.    The minimum amount you can lay in Betfair is £2 so I couldn’t correct it either. This also meant my liability was reduced by a small amount.

Bet Amount Bet Odds Lay Amount Lay Odds Lay Risk Profit
£16.26 2.35 £16.26 2.29 £37.3 £0.91/-£0.81

Outcome

The game ended in a draw so my mistake actually made me £96p better off!  I like those kiind of mistakes.

Profit So Far: £39.04

The odds were good for this one, and the SR amount showed instantly. Quidco is showing validated as £0 but hopefully this will change by September. All in all a valuable lesson learnt, check your figures!
 

 

 

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